The AI Arc
No surprise that the most striking transformation has been artificial intelligence going from a "bonus prediction" in 2022 to dominating every conversation by 2024.Back in 2022, AI barely merited a mention. By 2023, ChatGPT had entered the scene, and the industry was cautiously acknowledging its potential. Our own Will Schweitzer reminded readers not to "over-index on one technology"—sage advice that became harder to follow as AI's capabilities accelerated.
By 2024, the tone had shifted. "2023 felt different," we wrote, and it did. Publishers were racing to understand applications for peer review, author services, and content discovery. The advice evolved from "watch carefully" to "be fast followers and make small bets."
Now in 2025, we're seeing something more mature: a focus on practical implementation rather than hypotheticals. The "intelligence revolution raged in 2024," but as our latest report notes, much of that innovation happened outside scholarly publishing. Our industry's challenge now is finding sustainable applications that genuinely serve researchers and publishers.
What's most interesting is how AI transformed related conversations. It didn't just become a trend—it reshaped how we think about workflows, integrity, personalization, and discovery.
The Consistent Foundation: Data
If AI was the flashy newcomer, data was the predictable foundation.In 2022, we highlighted marketing technology and customer data platforms as critical infrastructure. Tim Barton called data "the revenue playbook for 2022," and that playbook hasn't changed—it's just gotten more sophisticated.
Each year, the conversation around data deepened. We moved from basic collection to activation, from siloed information to enterprise-wide intelligence, from reactive reporting to predictive analytics. By 2025, publishers were talking about 360-degree views of researchers, precision publishing using metadata, and connecting customer data across entire organizations.
Data remained important because it's the foundation that everything else (including AI) builds on. You can't personalize without data. You can't measure AI's impact without data. You can't optimize workflows, understand audiences, or drive revenue without data.
The lesson has been to invest in your data infrastructure early and continuously. It may not be glamorous, but it's essential.
Open Access Transformation
Remember when the Nelson Memo had everyone scrambling? In 2023, it topped our trends list, with publishers worried about "exposure" and "compliance" and zero-day embargoes.Two years later, open access mandates feel less like a crisis to manage and more like a business model to optimize. About 50% of content is now OA, and the conversation has shifted from "how do we survive this?" to "how do we thrive with this?"
The transformation was faster than many expected. Publishers developed transformative agreements, built B2C capabilities, and learned to work within the new paradigm. What seemed existential in 2023 became operational by 2025.
This arc offers a lesson in our industry's resilience: disruption is real, but so is adaptation.
The Rising Priorities: Trust and Experience
Two themes that barely registered in 2022 now command significant attention: research integrity and author experience.Research integrity has become critical as paper mills, fraudulent submissions, and AI-generated content threaten the scholarly record. What started as a background concern is now front-and-center, with publishers investing heavily in detection tools and integrity checks. The stakes are high—public trust in research depends on publishers getting this right.
Author experience, meanwhile, evolved from a nice-to-have to a competitive necessity. In an OA world where authors are customers, publishers can't afford friction in the submission and review process. We're seeing a shift from journal-centric to publisher-centric branding, with seamless author journeys becoming a revenue driver.
Both trends reflect a maturing industry that understands its value proposition isn't just hosting content—it's providing trust, service, and experience.
Looking to Year Five
As we prepare our 2026 report, we're watching for signs of what comes next. Will AI move from experimentation to proven ROI? How will the research integrity arms race evolve? Can publishers truly deliver personalization at scale?What we've learned from four years of these reports is that the industry adapts faster than we sometimes give it credit for. Technology transforms constantly, but the fundamentals remain: publishers succeed when they invest in infrastructure, listen to their communities, and stay focused on their missions.
We're grateful to the industry leaders who've contributed their insights to these reports over the years, and we’re again opening the call to share your predictions for what 2026 may hold for scholarly publishing technology. Make your voice heard by completing this form by November 21st.